Californians are set to vote on June 2 in a closely watched primary election that will help determine who succeeds Governor Gavin Newsom, who is barred from seeking re-election due to term limits.
The race to lead the country’s most populous state has drawn national attention, marked by shifting political fortunes and an unusually crowded field. One of the most prominent shake-ups came in April when former Representative Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign following allegations of sexual misconduct, which he has denied. His exit also coincided with his resignation from Congress, reshaping the Democratic contest and intensifying speculation over which candidates would emerge as frontrunners.
Attention has since turned to a handful of high-profile contenders. Among Democrats, billionaire philanthropist Tom Steyer, who previously mounted an unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2020, and former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra are viewed as leading candidates. However, polling suggests the race remains fluid, with no clear consensus on who will secure a place in the general election.
On the Republican side, Steve Hilton, a political strategist who previously worked with former UK Prime Minister David Cameron, has emerged as one of the most visible contenders. Backed by Donald Trump, Hilton is among the leading Republican figures in a contest that remains competitive despite California’s strong Democratic lean.
The large field has raised concerns among some Democrats that vote-splitting could complicate the path to the November general election. Under California’s election system, it is possible for two candidates from the same party to advance, potentially excluding the opposing party entirely. Election analysts, however, say such an outcome remains unlikely in a state that consistently votes Democratic in statewide races.
At the centre of the debate is California’s “top-two primary” system, often referred to as a “jungle primary.” Under this model, all candidates appear on a single ballot regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election, even if they belong to the same party.
The system applies to most statewide and federal offices, including state constitutional positions, legislative seats and congressional races. It does not apply to presidential contests, local offices or party committee elections.
Approved by voters in 2010 through Proposition 14 and implemented in 2011, the reform was designed to encourage candidates to appeal beyond party bases and reduce political polarization. Supporters argue it forces broader voter engagement, while critics say it limits voter choice in the general election if major parties are crowded out.
Write-in candidates are allowed under the system, but face a significant hurdle: they can only appear on the November ballot if they finish among the top two vote-getters in the primary.
As voters prepare to cast their ballots, the June 2 election is being viewed not only as a decision on California’s next governor but also as a test of how the state’s unique electoral system shapes political outcomes in one of the most influential races in the United States.
