Voters in Virginia and New Jersey are casting ballots Tuesday in two high-stakes gubernatorial races that could serve as an early test of political momentum ahead of next year’s midterm elections. The contests come just days after former President Barack Obama rallied Democratic supporters in both states — and as President Donald Trump largely stays on the sidelines.
Unlike previous election cycles, when Trump held large rallies to energize Republican voters, the President has avoided in-person appearances in either state. Instead, he joined virtual “tele-rallies” Monday night for Virginia Republican Winsome Earle-Sears and New Jersey’s GOP candidate Jack Ciattarelli, while using his Truth Social platform to urge supporters to vote Republican and warning that “a vote for the Democrats” was “a DEATH WISH!”
Trump’s limited involvement may reflect concerns over his low approval ratings, which have hovered just above 40% in Gallup surveys and dropped to 37% in a CNN poll released Monday — the lowest of his second term. Political strategists suggest his presence could hurt Republican candidates in swing states where both parties have been competitive.
“Democrats are trying to make this election a referendum on Trump,” said Republican strategist Douglas Heye. “Having him hold a rally right now would only magnify that.”
The outcomes in both states are expected to offer clues about the national political climate and which party may have an edge in the 2026 midterms. Republicans currently hold narrow control of both the House and Senate, but Democrats hope a backlash against Trump’s policies could help them reclaim the House under Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries.
In New Jersey, polls show a tightening race between Democrat Rep. Mikie Sherrill and Ciattarelli, who has praised Trump’s administration but has been cautious about fully aligning with him. “A relationship is important. That doesn’t mean we don’t disagree,” Ciattarelli told TIME, noting differences with Trump on immigration and energy policy.
In Virginia, Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger leads Earle-Sears in the latest surveys. Trump has offered only muted support for Earle-Sears, skipping any mention of her during a recent visit to Virginia’s Naval Station Norfolk and again during an Oval Office event last month.
Trump has instead focused attention on the New York City mayoral race, where he has unexpectedly voiced support for former Governor Andrew Cuomo, a Democrat running as an independent, over democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani. “If it’s between a bad Democrat and a Communist, I’m gonna pick the bad Democrat,” Trump told 60 Minutes on Sunday.
In a social media post Monday, Trump doubled down, calling Cuomo “the only viable option” and urging New Yorkers to back him.
As polls close Tuesday night, analysts will be watching closely to see whether voters’ choices signal cracks in Republican strength — or renewed resilience ahead of a pivotal election year.
