With the passing of Pope Francis on Monday at the age of 88, the Roman Catholic Church enters a period of transition and anticipation as up to 135 eligible cardinal electors prepare to select the next pontiff — a process that is already shaping up to be one of the most diverse and unpredictable in modern Church history.
When Francis — born Jorge Mario Bergoglio — emerged as the surprise choice in 2013, many had not expected the 76-year-old Argentine cardinal to be elected. His selection broke several centuries-old patterns: he was the first Latin American Pope, the first Jesuit Pope, and the first non-European pontiff in more than 1,200 years. Upon his election, he adopted the name Francis in honor of Saint Francis of Assisi, signaling a papacy focused on humility and social justice.
During his 12-year papacy, Francis reshaped the College of Cardinals by appointing 108 of the 135 cardinals now eligible to vote in the upcoming conclave. His appointments shifted the geographic makeup of the body significantly, decreasing Europe’s dominance while increasing representation from Latin America, Africa, Asia, and other underrepresented regions.
Despite this influence, Church scholars caution against assuming that Francis’ ideological legacy will continue unchallenged. “It’s very simplistic to say cardinals just vote along ideological lines,” says Miles Pattenden, a Catholic Church historian at Oxford University. “Cardinals are their own men, and even those appointed by Francis may prioritize different qualities.”
The conclave, expected to convene soon, will mark the first time the number of electors exceeds the traditional cap of 120. Pattenden notes that it also represents the most globally diverse group of electors ever assembled, with only 39% from Europe — down from 51% in 2013.
Francis’ appointments included several historic firsts: cardinals from countries such as Haiti, Myanmar, and India’s Dalit caste. However, while he broadened geographic inclusion, some scholars argue he did not similarly prioritize theological diversity. “When it comes to religious issues, it is highly likely that they will lean away from traditionalism,” says Carlos Eire, a professor of religious studies at Yale University.
As the Church prepares for the conclave, potential frontrunners include Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, known for his charisma, and Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State. Still, the outcome remains uncertain.
“The cardinals may not know each other well enough to form clear voting blocs,” says Pattenden. “That unpredictability could lead to surprising results — much like Pope Francis’ own election over a decade ago.”
