As the possibility of Donald Trump’s return to the White House looms, European leaders are increasingly focused on strengthening the continent’s independence, particularly in defense and economic matters. With Trump having made his intentions clear during his first term, European officials say they are preparing for a future in which they can no longer rely on the United States for security and support.
“We can’t depend on U.S. voters every four years for our security,” says Benjamin Haddad, France’s Minister Delegate for European Affairs. “It’s now time to wake up and defend ours.” This sentiment, shared by other European leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron, reflects a growing realization that Europe must take more responsibility for its future, especially as Trump’s return could lead to a shift in U.S. foreign policy.
Trump’s 2024 victory over Vice President Kamala Harris has reignited concerns among European capitals, who recall the uncertainty and unpredictability of his first term. European leaders, while wary of Trump’s erratic style, now feel more prepared for what a second term could bring. Trump has been outspoken about his stance on trade, defense spending, and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, with plans to press Europe on these fronts.
A key issue is Europe’s defense spending, which Trump has long criticized as disproportionate, especially given U.S. military support for Ukraine. In response, European foreign ministers have called for a greater role in securing their own defense, with some countries even pushing to exceed NATO’s defense spending targets. “The view is that we can’t be credible on Ukraine and expect Trump to take into account our sensitivities unless we’re willing to put a lot more money on the table,” says Mujtaba Rahman of Eurasia Group.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has also explored ways to address potential tariffs on European goods, including purchasing more U.S. liquefied natural gas to avoid punitive trade measures. If tariffs are imposed, Europe could retaliate with its own levies, targeting products like Kentucky bourbon and Harley-Davidson motorcycles.
While the EU remains united on key issues like supporting Ukraine—having provided over €120 billion in aid—internal challenges could complicate its ability to respond to Trump. Germany is in the midst of a political crisis, with fresh elections scheduled for February 2024, while France faces a debt crisis that threatens economic stability. This leaves the EU vulnerable to direct dealings between Trump and national leaders, bypassing EU institutions.
For some, the rise of more self-reliant European policies is seen as an opportunity. “Do we want to continue to exist, to carry clout, or just be the passive theater of great power rivalries?” asks Haddad. “Now it’s time to wake up from our vacation from history.” However, others caution that a more autonomous Europe must still be mindful of its reliance on U.S. security guarantees, suggesting a careful balance between independence and collaboration with the U.S.
As Europe faces this new era, its leaders must navigate a complex landscape where Trump’s return may push them toward greater autonomy, but also test their unity and relationships with the U.S.
