The head of UNAIDS, Winnie Byanyima, has issued a stark warning that new HIV infections could surge more than sixfold by 2029 if the United States withdraws funding from global AIDS programs. Speaking from Uganda, Byanyima cautioned that such a move could lead to millions of deaths, the emergence of drug-resistant HIV strains, and a dramatic rise in orphaned children.
Potential Humanitarian Crisis
In an interview with The Associated Press, Byanyima highlighted the significant progress made in recent decades, with new HIV infections dropping 60% since the epidemic peaked in 1995. However, she warned that President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend all foreign aid for 90 days has already created panic and uncertainty in countries heavily reliant on U.S. support.
“We will see a surge in this disease,” Byanyima said. “This will cost lives if the American government doesn’t change its mind and maintain its leadership.”
Impact on Healthcare Systems
The immediate consequences of the funding freeze are already being felt. In Kenya, 550 HIV healthcare workers were suddenly laid off, while thousands more lost their jobs in Ethiopia. The disruption has made it difficult for health officials to track and contain the epidemic.
Byanyima emphasized that many African nations depend on external funding—primarily from the U.S., which contributes around $400 million annually to HIV programs in countries such as Uganda, Mozambique, and Tanzania.
“The loss of U.S. funding is catastrophic,” she said. “We can work with them on how to decrease their contribution if they wish, but abruptly cutting off funding will cost lives.”
Setback Amid Promising Medical Advancements
The funding freeze comes at a pivotal moment in HIV prevention, coinciding with the arrival of a groundbreaking twice-yearly injection known as lenacapavir. The drug, developed by American pharmaceutical giant Gilead, has shown near-total effectiveness in preventing HIV in women and has been highly successful in men.
Byanyima described lenacapavir as “a magical prevention tool”, arguing that widespread distribution of the drug, combined with other interventions, could help end HIV as a public health threat within five years.
However, without U.S. funding, access to lifesaving treatments could be severely restricted, particularly in low-income countries.
Call for Global Action
Byanyima is now urging European nations to fill the void left by U.S. aid cuts.
“I have not yet heard of any European country committing to step in, but I know they are listening and trying to see where they can help,” she said.
She also pointed out the economic contradiction of the U.S. withdrawing support while benefiting from medical breakthroughs funded through global partnerships.
“American aid helped an American company develop a drug that will generate millions in revenue while also preventing new infections worldwide,” she explained. “Cutting funding doesn’t make economic sense.”
Byanyima stressed that foreign assistance accounts for less than 1% of the U.S. budget, questioning the rationale behind disrupting a program with such far-reaching benefits.
“People are going to die because lifesaving tools have been taken away from them,” she warned. “We appeal to the U.S. government to reconsider.”
With no clear replacement funding in sight, millions of lives hang in the balance, and global efforts to combat HIV face one of their most significant challenges yet.
