Swiss voters appeared to be moving towards rejecting a controversial proposal to cap the country’s population at 10 million, according to early projections released by national broadcaster SRF. The initiative, brought forward by the right-wing Swiss People’s Party (SVP), has triggered one of the most closely watched referendums in recent years.
Polling expert Lukas Golder of GFS Bern said preliminary estimates suggested around 45% of voters supported the measure, leaving opposition slightly ahead. Official results were expected to begin emerging from midday local time, with final confirmation depending on both the national vote and the approval of a majority of cantons.
The proposed constitutional amendment would require Switzerland to limit its population growth, with official forecasts suggesting the country could reach 10 million residents in the early 2040s. Supporters argue the policy is necessary to ease pressure on housing, infrastructure, and public services, which many voters increasingly associate with immigration levels.
If enacted, the plan could have far-reaching consequences for Switzerland’s relationship with the European Union. Crossing the 10 million threshold would trigger measures that might ultimately force a review or termination of Switzerland’s free movement agreement with the EU, a cornerstone of its labour market that supplies a significant share of its workforce.
Public concern over overcrowding, rising living costs, and strained services has become more visible in recent years. However, opinion polls ahead of the referendum showed a divided electorate, with a late shift suggesting growing resistance to the proposal.
Patrick Leisibach, a migration researcher at think tank Avenir Suisse, said the debate now extends beyond traditional political lines. “There’s a traditional anti-immigration vote on the right wing, but these days even many on the left are feeling the pressure,” he said.
The Swiss government and parliament have urged voters to reject the initiative, warning it could harm the country’s export-driven economy and damage relations with the EU. Business leaders have echoed these concerns, arguing that limiting access to foreign labour could create shortages in healthcare, hospitality, and research sectors.
Johanna Alves, a 33-year-old student who voted against the measure, said Switzerland’s international workforce was essential. She warned that restricting immigration could undermine both the economy and public services.
On the other side, SVP parliamentarian Thomas Matter said Switzerland’s prosperity had not kept pace with population growth and argued that stricter limits were needed.
Even within the SVP, some figures described the initiative as symbolic, intended to push policymakers towards tighter controls rather than immediately ending free movement.
Switzerland’s system of direct democracy requires not only a popular majority but also cantonal approval for constitutional changes. While past referendums have occasionally endorsed stricter immigration rules, voters have also rejected measures viewed as economically risky, leaving the outcome uncertain until final counts are completed.
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