President Donald Trump unveiled a new proposal on Monday aimed at ending the war in Ukraine, offering military support to Kyiv while giving Moscow a 50-day window to consider a ceasefire before facing new economic penalties.
Dubbed the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, the plan includes immediate U.S. weapons shipments to Ukraine but stops short of imposing harsher sanctions on Russia. Instead, it threatens a 100% tariff on Russian goods and those of its trading partners—should the Kremlin refuse to engage in peace talks within the grace period.
For Ukraine, the proposal signals renewed U.S. backing in the form of badly needed arms to repel Russian attacks. For Russia, the delay in punitive measures offers time to pursue its ongoing summer offensive aimed at seizing four eastern Ukrainian regions before autumn weather sets in.
“Putin will not negotiate as a loser,” a longtime Kremlin associate told TIME from Moscow. “He knows that winners don’t get punished, and if he wins, all of this—sanctions, tariffs—will go away.”
Markets in Moscow reacted with optimism. The main Russian stock index surged by 2.7% and the ruble strengthened following Trump’s announcement, reflecting investor confidence that any threat of tariffs may ultimately be deferred.
The proposal is a pared-down version of a tougher sanctions plan originally championed by Senator Lindsey Graham. His version had called for 500% tariffs targeting Russian oil and its global buyers—particularly India and China—as a means to undercut Moscow’s war financing. Despite bipartisan support for the tougher approach, the White House reportedly urged lawmakers to delay the bill’s progress, with Trump telling reporters on Monday, “I’m not sure we need it.”
Critics argue that Trump’s plan may fail to alter the course of the war. With over three years of combat behind them and more than 5,000 Russian soldiers reportedly dying daily, analysts warn that President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to back down. “He’s too deep into it now,” said the Kremlin insider. “He feels like he has the upper hand.”
While the plan provides Ukraine with short-term support, it does not impose immediate consequences on Russia for its continued aggression. Observers say that unless significant leverage is applied, the Kremlin is unlikely to abandon its goal of capturing all of Ukraine’s eastern territories.
With the war grinding on and casualties mounting on both sides, Trump’s proposal may serve more as a political gesture than a decisive diplomatic breakthrough.