During his presidential campaign, President-elect Donald Trump promised to alleviate the financial burden on American households, particularly with regard to rising grocery prices. However, experts now caution that his proposed tariffs could worsen the situation for consumers already grappling with inflation.
High grocery prices and the broader state of the economy were key concerns for voters in the recent election. According to Consumer Price Index data, grocery store prices in 2024 are nearly 25% higher than pre-pandemic levels, driven by disruptions in supply chains caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing global conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine. As a result, many shoppers have been feeling the pinch at the checkout line.
The economy was a primary issue for voters, and surveys showed that 60% of those “very concerned” about economic conditions voted for Trump. Despite these concerns, experts warn that one of Trump’s signature campaign promises—a 10-20% tariff on all imports, with goods from China facing tariffs as high as 60%—could have unintended consequences, particularly for food prices.
David Ortega, a food economist at Michigan State University, describes the tariffs as a policy “almost surely going to backfire.” Rather than reducing prices, Ortega believes the tariffs will likely lead to higher costs for consumers. Trump has argued that the tariffs will be paid by other countries, not American consumers, with the goal of boosting American manufacturing and addressing unfair trade practices, particularly from China.
At a rally in Mosinee, Wisconsin, Trump reiterated his position, stating, “We’re going to be a tariff nation. It’s not going to be at a cost to you, it’s going to be at a cost to another country.” However, experts suggest that consumers could still bear the brunt of the tariffs at the grocery store.
Felix Tintelnot, an economics professor at Duke University, explains that while the law dictates the tariff is paid at the border by importers, the economic burden may ultimately fall on consumers. “Many importers might raise the cost of items in order to offset the tariffs,” Tintelnot notes, “thus passing the burden on to consumers.”
The potential impact of these tariffs comes at a time when inflation and high grocery prices are already weighing heavily on American households. As the administration prepares to implement its trade policies, experts say that the consequences could be felt in the form of even higher costs for everyday items, further stretching the budgets of struggling families.