Britain’s dependence on China for batteries and other net zero technologies could put up to 90,000 manufacturing jobs at risk if the supply chain were disrupted, according to a new report by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR).
The analysis warns that even a one-year interruption in the supply of Chinese battery components could sharply reduce electric vehicle production and threaten jobs across the UK automotive sector. Researchers estimate that around 67,000 jobs in electric vehicle manufacturing, 8,000 in battery production, and nearly 15,000 in related supply chains could be affected.
The report models scenarios in which geopolitical tensions, such as a crisis over Taiwan, or natural disasters disrupt China’s battery manufacturing and processing. In such cases, UK battery and car output could fall by almost half, with knock-on effects across suppliers nationwide. The IPPR notes that China’s dominance in producing lithium, cathodes, anodes, and other battery inputs leaves the UK and European manufacturers vulnerable even when sourcing cells from Japan or Europe, as these producers themselves rely heavily on Chinese raw materials.
By 2030, the report predicts that nearly half of UK battery cell demand will still depend on imports, with 80% of cathodes imported and all anodes sourced from abroad. A disruption could reduce battery output by 50%, potentially cutting production by around 583,000 electric vehicles in a single year.
Pranesh Narayanan, IPPR research director, said Britain’s exposure reflects the growing fragility of global trade. “The UK is a small open trading nation sailing through an international economy whose waters are getting choppier by the day,” he said. “Trade wars, geopolitical conflict and global shocks ultimately hurt the UK because we rely so heavily on overseas supply chains for essentials, including clean energy technologies.”
The IPPR is urging the government to accelerate domestic production of batteries and critical minerals and to diversify international supply chains to reduce dependence on a single country. The report also recommends encouraging joint ventures with Asian manufacturers and providing targeted industrial support to strengthen supply chain resilience.
Laura Chappell, an IPPR researcher, said building economic resilience should be a core aim of British industrial and foreign policy. “Diplomats should be working to build partnerships that underpin Britain’s future energy security,” she said. “These can be win-wins, supporting jobs and growth both in the UK and in partner countries.”
The findings come amid ongoing debate in Whitehall over the national security implications of the net zero transition. Last year, the Royal United Services Institute warned that excessive reliance on China for clean energy technologies posed strategic risks. Critics of Energy Secretary Ed Miliband’s plans for a fully decarbonised electricity system have argued that it risks binding Britain to Beijing, though the government maintains it will “never compromise national security” and that reliance on fossil fuels in volatile global markets poses a greater long-term risk.
The IPPR report adds urgency to calls for a more robust industrial strategy, cautioning that Britain’s net zero ambitions could leave key manufacturing sectors dangerously exposed without decisive action.