This year, the U.S. may experience a lighter COVID-19 holiday season than in recent years, according to experts. Despite the virus following a predictable pattern of rising infections each winter, this season has been unusual, with much lower activity than anticipated.
Throughout November, COVID-19 activity remained minimal, and even as December progresses, levels of the SARS-CoV-2 virus detected in U.S. wastewater are still considered “low” by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). By the week ending Dec. 7, the virus had begun to increase but was still far below typical levels seen in past Decembers.
Data scientist and infectious disease modeler Jay Weiland projects that roughly three times fewer people in the U.S. will catch COVID-19 this holiday season compared to previous years. He estimates that around 300,000 Americans are contracting COVID-19 each day, a significant drop from the approximately 1 million daily cases reported in previous holiday seasons. While the numbers are still substantial, Weiland notes that the current situation is relatively mild compared to past years.
Experts suggest that this season’s lower case numbers can be attributed to the large wave of COVID-19 infections in the U.S. this past summer. Around 25% or more of the population became sick during that time, providing many with relatively fresh immunity. This immunity, combined with the absence of highly concerning new variants, has helped limit the spread of the virus this winter.
Despite the lower numbers, a slight increase in cases is still expected due to factors such as holiday travel, indoor gatherings, and colder weather, which typically promote viral spread. However, Weiland anticipates that this year’s wave may peak later and be smaller than usual. Katelyn Jetelina, who writes the Your Local Epidemiologist newsletter, echoes this sentiment, stating there is a good chance this wave will be milder than those of previous winters.
Though COVID-19 cases remain relatively low, other respiratory illnesses are on the rise this season. Influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and the common cold are contributing to increased illness across the country. Experts recommend taking precautions, including wearing masks in crowded indoor spaces, regular handwashing, and staying home when feeling unwell, to prevent the spread of not just COVID-19, but other viruses as well.
For those who have yet to receive their updated COVID-19 vaccine, Jetelina advises that now is an ideal time. While vaccines are most effective at preventing severe illness and death, they still offer protection against infection, particularly in the months following a dose. With viral spread expected to increase as winter progresses, getting vaccinated could provide added protection during the holiday season.