A new study warns that extreme temperatures, particularly heat waves, could lead to as many as 2.3 million deaths across Europe by the end of the century unless there are significant efforts to reduce carbon emissions and improve adaptation to rising temperatures.
Currently, cold weather causes more deaths than heat in Europe, but research from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine suggests that as global temperatures rise, the number of heat-related deaths will surge. The study analyzed death rates in 854 cities and found that while cold-related deaths decrease gradually, heat-related deaths will escalate quickly as temperatures climb.
The findings project that countries like Italy, southern Spain, and Greece will experience dramatic increases in heat-related deaths, especially if there is insufficient adaptation, such as the implementation of air conditioning and cooling centers. In contrast, regions like Scandinavia and the United Kingdom will see fewer temperature-related deaths, as warmer winters reduce the number of cold-related fatalities.
Even under the most optimistic scenarios—where carbon emissions are sharply reduced and adaptation efforts are robust—the study’s lead author, Pierre Masselot, noted that temperature-related deaths would still rise. The decrease in cold-related deaths is offset by the more significant increase in heat deaths in more populated, southern areas of Europe.
“The Mediterranean is a so-called climate hotspot,” Masselot explained. “It’s a region that is warming much faster than the rest of the world, and Malta is right in the middle of it.” The study predicts that by the end of the century, Malta could see a rise of 269 heat-related deaths per 100,000 people, while Ireland’s death rate will drop by 15 per 100,000.
The study also highlighted that wealthier western European countries are better equipped to cope with the impacts of extreme temperatures, compared to eastern European nations. Several recent heat waves, including one in 2003 that caused about 70,000 deaths, have already shown the devastating effects of extreme heat in Europe.
In major cities near the Mediterranean, such as Barcelona, Rome, and Naples, the number of heat-related deaths could skyrocket by hundreds of thousands if carbon emissions continue on their current trajectory. Under a scenario with minimal reductions in emissions and little adaptation, the study projects over 5.8 million excess heat-related deaths across Europe, though it also predicts a decrease of nearly 3.5 million cold-related deaths.
Experts stress the need for increased adaptation measures, particularly in Europe, where older buildings and limited air conditioning make many cities vulnerable to extreme heat. Without significant improvements such as central air, more green spaces, and cooling centers, the death toll from heat-related incidents could be much higher.
“As Europe’s population ages, the risks become even more pronounced,” Masselot warned. With heat-related deaths expected to rise, adapting to the changing climate will be crucial for saving lives in the decades to come.