SpaceX is planning to welcome investors to a high-stakes gamble on Elon Musk’s long-term vision of AI data centres in orbit and the future human settlement of Mars, yet the company has been posting multi-billion dollar losses and is more than just bleeding money in the short-term.
At its planned initial public offering, SpaceX is valued at almost $1.8 trillion, which is based on the assumption that, like Tesla and SpaceX, Musk will be able to transform ambitious ideas into lucrative industries that dominate the world. The core of that assessment is the conviction that space-based infrastructure and Starlink satellite connectivity will become a significant revenue stream, with new AI systems operating beyond Earth’s atmosphere.
Financial disclosures indicate a divergence between growth and profitability. SpaceX recorded revenues of $18.7 billion in 2025, representing a 33% growth over the previous year, but its losses increased to $4.9 billion due to the surge in expenses. The company began to burn cash in early 2026, when it reported another $4.3 billion loss in the first quarter alone.
Yet, the IPO prospectus indicates that, in the long term, the company could make more than $28 trillion in revenue from future satellite internet growth and future space-based artificial intelligence computing systems. Musk’s AI company, xAI, is still comparatively small compared to other companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, with revenue of approximately $500 million.
Even after the public listing, the company will be controlled by Musk. Those buying shares will get the Class A shares that vote one per share, while Musk will keep his Class B shares that vote 10 per share. This structure should ensure he has controlling interest in voting power, which is expected to be about 82% of the total.
The company has also adopted strong legal defenses aiming to curtail shareholder suits. Investor suits would be referred to a specially-created business court in Texas, where, if denied, they would enter private arbitration, with no class-action cases or jury trials. The filing does not rule out legal challenges but these provisions would greatly limit investor recourse.
To attract a wider audience, SpaceX will sell approximately 30% of IPO shares to retail investors, which is a relatively high proportion in its typical stock offerings, which are usually dominated by institutional buyers. But, only about 4% of the total equity will be available during the IPO, which means supply will be extremely limited, thus adding to a potential increase in demand-driven volatility.
The price changes can be exacerbated by market dynamics. The passive funds that chase major indexes account for more than 60% of the US equity market, and some recent rule changes may make it easier for SpaceX to be added to the Nasdaq 100 in as few as 15 trading days. That would make sure that the index funds quickly purchase shares, which may lead to a sudden sharp surge in demand when supply is limited.
The high retail participation, limited float and concentrated ownership may lead to considerable early trading volatility as investors react to one of the most unusual and anticipated public offerings in recent years, analysts say.