SpaceX is preparing to invite investors into a high-stakes bet on Elon Musk’s long-term vision of artificial intelligence data centres in orbit and eventual human settlement on Mars, even as the company continues to post multi-billion-dollar losses and relies heavily on future promises rather than current profitability.
The planned initial public offering values SpaceX at nearly $1.8 trillion, a figure that reflects expectations that Musk will replicate his past successes with Tesla and SpaceX by turning ambitious technological concepts into dominant global industries. Central to that valuation is the belief that space-based infrastructure and Starlink satellite connectivity will evolve into major revenue engines, alongside emerging AI systems operated beyond Earth’s atmosphere.
Financial disclosures show a widening gap between growth and profitability. SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, a 33% increase year-on-year, yet rising costs pushed net losses to $4.9 billion. The company continued to burn cash in early 2026, reporting an additional $4.3 billion loss in the first quarter alone.
Despite this, the IPO prospectus suggests long-term revenue potential exceeding $28 trillion, driven by satellite internet expansion and future artificial intelligence computing systems hosted in space. Musk’s AI venture, xAI, remains relatively small compared with competitors, generating roughly $500 million in revenue, far below leading firms such as OpenAI and Anthropic.
Control of the company will remain firmly in Musk’s hands even after the public listing. Investors purchasing shares will receive Class A stock carrying one vote per share, while Musk retains Class B shares that carry 10 votes each. This structure is expected to give him around 82% of total voting power, allowing him to maintain decisive control over strategy and governance.
The company has also implemented strict legal protections designed to limit shareholder litigation. Investor disputes would be directed to a specialised Texas business court, and if rejected, moved into private arbitration without jury trials or class-action rights. While the filing acknowledges potential legal challenges, these provisions are designed to significantly restrict investor recourse.
To broaden participation, SpaceX plans to allocate about 30% of IPO shares to retail investors, an unusually high proportion compared with typical offerings dominated by institutional buyers. However, only around 4% of total equity will be available in the IPO, creating a highly limited supply that could intensify demand-driven volatility.
Market mechanics may further amplify price movements. More than 60% of US equities are held by passive funds tracking major indices, and recent rule changes could accelerate SpaceX’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 within just 15 trading days. That would force index funds to quickly buy shares, potentially increasing demand sharply while supply remains constrained.
Analysts say this combination of concentrated ownership, limited float, and high retail participation could result in significant early trading volatility as investors react to one of the most anticipated and unconventional public listings in recent years.
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